Last Mile Market Intelligence · May 01, 2026

The Signal

Favorable financing window with strong demand — conditions support strategic vehicle acquisition

Window Score
70
out of 100
Acquisition Window
▬ unchanged
Financing
✓ Favorable — Act Now
Interest rates are nearing a bottom. Based on historical patterns, rates are expected to begin rising within 2-4 months. Current financing terms represent the best window available in this cycle.
Supply
⚠ Tightening Fast
Corporate borrowing costs are increasing (BAA yield velocity: +1.3%). Credit conditions are tightening, which typically makes lender terms less favorable over the coming quarters.
Operating Costs
⚠ Rising & Accelerating
Fuel costs are rising and accelerating. This will compress operating margins faster than expected. Budget for a continued increase over the next 60-90 days.
Demand
⚠ Weakening
Demand indicators remain strong with no sign of weakening. Order volumes and retail activity support continued equipment utilization.
Opportunity Windows — Time Remaining
Financing Rate Bottom
~2-4 months · 3 episodes
Used Vehicle Discount
~4-6 months · 183 episodes
Supply Availability
~3-5 months · 119 episodes
Demand Strength
~6-8 months · 13 episodes
New This Period
Prime Rate: bottom formingPrime Rate is still declining (-1.2% 3-month rolling velocity) but the rate of decline is easing (acceleration: +4.5). The headline is still negative, but the momentum has shifted. Current: 6.75 %. Hi...
SOFR: bottom formingSOFR is still declining (-5.8% 3-month rolling velocity) but the rate of decline is easing (acceleration: +3.0). The headline is still negative, but the momentum has shifted. Current: 3.63 %. Historic...
US Retail Diesel: structural shift detectedUS Retail Diesel showed an abnormal move near 2026-03-30 — 4.3 standard deviations from the trailing mean. Current: 5.35 $/gal. Structural shifts reset the baseline. Historical patterns may not hold. ...
Recommendations
6 actions · 3 high confidence · ranked by urgency
Act Now
3 actions
Review and adjust per-mile and per-stop pricing
High Confidence Next contract renewal or within 30 days
Fuel and labor costs are both trending higher. Operating margins will compress if pricing isn't adjusted to reflect current input costs. Customers expect periodic adjustments — waiting until margins are critically compressed makes the conversation harder.
Take advantage of declining used vehicle prices to replace aging fleet units
High Confidence Within 90 days — this window closes when vehicle prices stabilize
Repair costs are rising while used vehicle prices are declining. This crossover is the optimal replacement window — the cost of keeping goes up while the cost of replacing goes down. These conditions don't persist indefinitely.
Place vehicle orders now — supply is tightening against strong demand
High Confidence Immediately — supply conditions deteriorate each month in this regime
Dealer inventories are declining and the inventory-to-sales ratio is compressing. Waiting will mean fewer options, longer delivery times, and less leverage on pricing. Manufacturers are less likely to offer incentives when their supply is constrained.
Plan Within 60-120 Days
3 actions
Consider purchasing rather than renting additional vehicles
Moderate Confidence within the next 60-120 days
Interest rates are near their cyclical bottom and demand remains strong. Purchasing now locks in the lowest financing costs of this cycle. Rental rates will increase as demand builds and available inventory tightens. Vehicles purchased at current rates will carry a lower cost basis than those financed later.
Begin seasonal preparation now
Moderate Confidence 60-120 days before peak season
Current demand trajectory and production momentum indicate the coming seasonal period will place additional pressure on vehicle availability and driver supply. Retail activity is +4.0% year-over-year, suggesting the seasonal uptick could exceed last year's levels. Operators who secure capacity ahead of the surge avoid premium pricing.
Review fleet maintenance costs and flag vehicles approaching the replace threshold
Moderate Confidence Within 30 days — prepare the list, action if acceleration appears
Maintenance costs are trending higher but not yet accelerating. Now is the time to identify which vehicles are approaching the point where repair costs exceed the value of continued operation. If repair costs accelerate, the window to act narrows.
Curated Signals
6 highest-impact signals this period · 34 indicators monitored
↻
Last-Mile
Prime Rate: bottom forming
Prime Rate is still declining (-1.2% 3-month rolling velocity) but the rate of decline is easing (acceleration: +4.5). The headline is still negative, but the momentum has shifted. Current: 6.75 %. Historical pattern: across 3 similar episodes, the recovery began within 2 months (range: 1-3), with a median rebound of +0.0%. Collateral values in this vertical may stabilize before the headline improves. Positioning ahead of the turn captures the most value.
↻
Last-Mile
SOFR: bottom forming
SOFR is still declining (-5.8% 3-month rolling velocity) but the rate of decline is easing (acceleration: +3.0). The headline is still negative, but the momentum has shifted. Current: 3.63 %. Historical pattern: across 4 similar episodes, the recovery began within 2 months (range: 1-4), with a median rebound of +1.1%. Collateral values in this vertical may stabilize before the headline improves. Positioning ahead of the turn captures the most value.
⚙
Last-Mile
US Retail Diesel: accelerating upward
US Retail Diesel is not just rising — it's rising faster (+32.9% 3-month rolling velocity, acceleration: +34.9). Current: 5.35 $/gal. Based on 16 prior episodes, this acceleration phase typically lasted 3 months before peaking, with a total move of -5.7% from here. This is a cost accelerating against margins.
⚙
Last-Mile
BAA Corporate Yield: accelerating upward
BAA Corporate Yield is not just rising — it's rising faster (+1.3% 3-month rolling velocity, acceleration: +3.7). Current: 6.04 %. Based on 22 prior episodes, this acceleration phase typically lasted 6 months before peaking, with a total move of -1.3% from here. This is a cost accelerating against margins.
⚙
Last-Mile
5yr Treasury: accelerating upward
5yr Treasury is not just rising — it's rising faster (+2.6% 3-month rolling velocity, acceleration: +6.0). Current: 3.85 %. Based on 17 prior episodes, this acceleration phase typically lasted 4 months before peaking, with a total move of -7.7% from here. This is demand building momentum — equipment and capacity follow.
⚙
Supply
Vehicle Production: accelerating upward
Vehicle Production is not just rising — it's rising faster (+3.6% 3-month rolling velocity, acceleration: +13.3). Current: 101.84 K units. Based on 127 prior episodes, this acceleration phase typically lasted 3 months before peaking, with a total move of -4.9% from here. This is demand building momentum — equipment and capacity follow.
60–120 Day Outlook
Rates
Financing rates are expected to begin rising within 2-4 months, closing the current window of favorable borrowing costs.
Supply
Demand remains solid with no immediate signs of reversal.
Costs
Equipment utilization rates should hold.
Demand
Fuel costs are accelerating and should be budgeted to increase further over the next 60-90 days.
Detailed Indicators
34 indicators · 9 verticals
Last-Mile
US Retail DieselPrime RateSOFRBAA Corporate Yield5yr TreasuryRetail Sales
Indicator Current As Of Trend Phase Velocity 3mo Δ YoY σ
US Retail Diesel
~3mo to inflection (-5.7%, 16 ep.)
EIA · EPD2D (No. 2 Diesel - National Average) · weekly
 $5.35 2026-04-27 ▲▲ Accel Up +32.9% +47.6% +52.3% +4.3σ ⚡
Prime Rate
~2mo to inflection (+0.0%, 3 ep.)
FRED DPRIME · DPRIME (Bank Prime Loan Rate) · daily
 6.8% 2026-04-27 ▼… Decel Down -1.2% +0.0% -10.0% -1.4σ
SOFR
~2mo to inflection (+1.1%, 4 ep.)
FRED SOFR · SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) · monthly
 3.6% 2026-04-29 ▼… Decel Down -5.8% -1.4% -17.7% -1.6σ
BAA Corporate Yield
~6mo to inflection (-1.3%, 22 ep.)
FRED BAA · BAA (Moody's BAA Corporate Bond Yield) · monthly
 6.0% 2026-03-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +1.3% +2.4% +1.9% +0.8σ
5yr Treasury
~4mo to inflection (-7.7%, 17 ep.)
FRED GS5 · GS5 (5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate) · monthly
 3.9% 2026-03-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +2.6% +4.0% -4.7% -0.4σ
Retail Sales
~6mo to inflection (+1.2%, 13 ep.)
FRED RSAFS · RSAFS (Advance Retail Sales: Total) · monthly
 $752B 2026-03-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +1.2% +2.4% +4.0% +2.2σ
Driver Hourly Wage
BLS CEU4348400003 · CEU4348400003 (Couriers & Messengers Avg Hourly Earnings) · monthly
 $33.29 2026-02-01 ▬ Neutral +1.4% +1.4% +3.9% +2.1σ
CPI Services
BLS CUSR0000SAS · CUSR0000SAS (CPI All Services Less Energy Services) · monthly
 427.3 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral +0.9% +0.9% +3.3% +1.7σ
Fleet Ops
ATA Truck TonnageFreight TSIJOLTS Job OpeningsJOLTS Quits Rate
Indicator Current As Of Trend Phase Velocity 3mo Δ YoY σ
Trucking Employment
FRED via SLCI feed · CES4348400001 · monthly
 1,464K 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral -0.3% -0.2% -1.8% -1.5σ
Transportation Employment
FRED via SLCI feed · CES4300000001 · monthly
 6,550K 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral -0.4% -0.1% -1.8% -2.1σ ⚡
ATA Truck Tonnage
~3mo to inflection (+0.8%, 48 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · TRUCKD11 · monthly
 112.8 2026-01-01 ▼▼ Accel Down -0.7% +0.5% +0.6% -0.9σ
Freight TSI
~3mo to inflection (+0.8%, 60 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · TSIFRGHT · monthly
 136.4 2026-01-01 ▼▼ Accel Down -0.8% -0.2% -0.3% -1.3σ
JOLTS Job Openings
~4mo to inflection (-0.1%, 60 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · JTSJOL · monthly
 6,882K 2026-02-01 ▼▼ Accel Down -2.4% +0.5% -5.0% -1.1σ ⚡
JOLTS Quits Rate
~4mo to inflection (+0.4%, 87 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · JTSQUL · monthly
 2,974K 2026-02-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +2.6% -4.7% -5.7% -1.7σ
PPI: Truck Rental & Leasing
FRED via SLCI feed · PCU532120532120 · monthly
 170.2 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral +0.3% -0.2% +1.1% +0.5σ
Energy
Oil Volatility Ind..Natural Gas (Henry..WTI Crude OilGulf Coast Diesel
Indicator Current As Of Trend Phase Velocity 3mo Δ YoY σ
Oil Volatility Index (OVX)
~3mo to inflection (-12.3%, 81 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · OVXCLS · daily
 75.8 2026-04-24 ▲▲ Accel Up +88.4% +35.6% +39.2% +2.5σ ⚡
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
~4mo to inflection (+6.2%, 113 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · DHHNGSP · daily
 $2.81 2026-04-20 ▼▼ Accel Down -45.0% -60.9% -9.9% -0.3σ
WTI Crude Oil
~4mo to inflection (-5.0%, 166 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · DCOILWTICO · daily
 $91.06 2026-04-20 ▲▲ Accel Up +44.7% +41.2% +52.9% +2.2σ ⚡
Gulf Coast Diesel
~3mo to inflection (-3.8%, 65 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · DDFUELUSGULF · daily
 $3.46 2026-04-20 ▲▲ Accel Up +58.6% +52.2% +75.2% +2.6σ ⚡
Supply
Vehicle ProductionVehicle Mfg Shipme..Vehicle Mfg Unfill..Auto Inventory/Sal..PPI
Indicator Current As Of Trend Phase Velocity 3mo Δ YoY σ
Vehicle Production
~3mo to inflection (-4.9%, 127 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · DAUPSA · monthly
 102K 2026-02-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +3.6% +8.6% -5.5% -1.1σ
Vehicle Mfg Shipments
~6mo to inflection (-0.1%, 63 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · AMTMVS · monthly
 $623B 2026-02-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +1.5% +2.8% +3.5% +3.3σ ⚡
Vehicle Mfg Unfilled Orders
~6mo to inflection (+0.3%, 27 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · AMTMUO · monthly
 $1.5T 2026-02-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +2.4% +1.7% +11.1% +2.0σ
Vehicle Mfg New Orders
FRED via SLCI feed · AMTMNO · monthly
 $620B 2026-02-01 ▬ Neutral +1.0% -0.4% +3.7% +1.2σ
Vehicle Mfg Inventories
FRED via SLCI feed · AMTMTI · monthly
 $950B 2026-02-01 ▬ Neutral +0.2% +0.2% +0.8% +1.6σ
Auto Inventory/Sales Ratio
~3mo to inflection (+3.0%, 119 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · AISRSA · monthly
 1.214 2026-02-01 ▼▼ Accel Down -20.7% -19.4% -0.2% -1.2σ ⚡
Total Vehicle Sales (SAAR)
FRED via SLCI feed · TOTALSA · monthly
 16.7M 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral -0.5% +1.7% -9.1% +0.3σ
PPI: Light Trucks
FRED via SLCI feed · WPU1412 · monthly
 146.5 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral +0.5% +0.5% +2.8% +1.9σ
PPI: Heavy Trucks
~10mo to inflection (+0.7%, 29 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · WPU1413 · monthly
 378.3 2026-03-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +2.2% +2.9% +4.7% +2.4σ ⚡
Repair Costs
PPICPICPI
Indicator Current As Of Trend Phase Velocity 3mo Δ YoY σ
CPI: Maintenance & Repair
FRED via SLCI feed · CUUR0000SETD · monthly
 449.7 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral +0.5% +2.3% +6.9% +1.9σ
PPI: Vehicle Parts
~7mo to inflection (+0.3%, 75 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · WPU0713 · monthly
 264.3 2026-03-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +0.8% +0.8% +2.0% +2.2σ
CPI: Parts & Equipment
FRED via SLCI feed · CUSR0000SETC · monthly
 189.1 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral +0.3% +0.7% +3.8% +2.0σ
CPI: New Vehicles
FRED via SLCI feed · CUUR0000SETA01 · monthly
 179.0 2026-03-01 ▬ Neutral +0.2% +0.5% +0.5% +1.6σ
CPI: Used Cars & Trucks
~4mo to inflection (+0.7%, 183 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · CUSR0000SETA02 · monthly
 179.8 2026-03-01 ▼▼ Accel Down -2.8% -2.6% -3.2% -0.6σ
CPI: Vehicle Insurance
~4mo to inflection (-1.2%, 282 ep.)
FRED via SLCI feed · CUUR0000SETB01 · monthly
 328.9 2026-03-01 ▲▲ Accel Up +4.0% +25.8% +18.9% +2.5σ ⚡

Reading This Report

Phase Direction + acceleration. ▲▲ = rising faster. ▼… = falling but slowing. ▬ = steady.
Velocity Latest 3-month average vs prior 3-month average.
3mo Δ Latest value vs the value three monthly observations prior.
σ (sigma) How unusual vs. history. Above ±2σ is flagged ⚡ as a structural shift.
Window Score 0–100 composite of financing, supply, cost, and demand conditions.
Inflection Estimated months to next phase change based on historical pattern matching.
Structural Shift ⚡ Abnormal move that resets the baseline. Investigate root cause.